..is not to trade :p. stuck with TMI and my fund now only for Pbbank and ytlpowerwb. theres no point catching a falling knife atm.
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Take Some Control
by Jason Zweig
Friday, March 6, 2009
Friday, March 6, 2009
provided by
In normal times, the best advice after a market decline is "Don't be afraid." But these are not normal times, and anyone who is not afraid after a 50% market decline has a few screws loose. The trick is to channel your fear into sensible action that will improve your financial future.
Instead of big impulsive steps you may regret later, you should take small and careful steps that will make you feel you have taken charge. Mental-health experts have found that merely believing you have some control over a painful situation is enough to make the pain more bearable. At a time like this, taking a little bit of action can give you a lot of comfort -- both as an immediate salve for your market wounds today and as a portfolio strengthener in the years to come.
For investors, that means being deliberate in everything you do and making sure that all your decisions are gradual and incremental, rather than sudden and drastic. Call it "smart panic" -- calculated actions that free you from the chains of inertia without compelling you to go haywire.
Normally, inertia keeps investors locked into all their investments, good and bad. As Sir Isaac Newton might have put it, an investor at rest stays at rest, and an investor in motion stays in motion, unless acted upon by an outside force. Severe losses can shock any investor out of inertia, often in destructive ways.
Here is a list of constructive steps you can take instead:
Inventory all your assets. The stock market has lost half its value -- but chances are that when you properly measure the performance of all your investments, you will see that your portfolio as a whole is down considerably less. Use an Excel or Google spreadsheet, even just pencil and paper, to tally up all your cash, bonds, stocks, funds and other investments. Only by taking inventory of everything you own can you tell how well or poorly your wealth has held up. In the process, you will also see -- perhaps for the first time -- how well you are diversified. This advice may seem simplistic, but over the years I have met very prominent investors who actually have no idea what they own. If they could benefit from this step, so can you.
Get an upgrade. By erasing your capital gains, the bear market has taken away much of the tax liability that might have entrapped you in an overpriced mutual fund with an underperforming manager. Now you can ditch it and replace it with what you should have held all along: a low-cost index fund (or if you do not invest regularly each month, an exchange-traded fund). Steve Condon, investment director at Truepoint Inc., a wealth-advisory firm in Cincinnati, points out that this will not only lower your annual expenses and your tax bill, but is likely to raise your return when the stock market does recover. That's because the managers of active stock funds have raised their cash levels to an average of nearly 6% of assets, while index funds always keep all their assets in the market.
Change your new money, not your old money. In your 401(k), you could leave your existing positions in stock funds as they are. Bailing out completely is not the only option for reducing your exposure to stocks. You can take your new contributions from future paychecks and direct them into an investment-grade bond fund. You can always reverse this decision later; to make sure you remember, mark your calendar to review the choice one year from now.
Move your dividends. If you own a stock fund, you aren't obligated to reinvest your dividend distributions in more shares of the same fund. Instead, you can deposit them into a bond or money-market fund. That, says finance professor Meir Statman of Santa Clara University, may be less psychologically painful than having to dump the stock fund in its entirety. "You're turning the dividends into 'fresh money' that doesn't have the taint of loss," he says.
Move on tiptoe. If you can't take the pain of being in stocks anymore, then get out -- an inch at a time. Set up an automatic withdrawal plan with your mutual fund or brokerage account, selling a fixed dollar amount each month for, say, the next five years. Take comfort from the fact that you can stop it, decrease it or raise it at any time. Tiptoeing your way out is a move that's easy and cheap to change. Bailing out of the market in one fell swoop, however, is a step that's difficult and expensive to reverse. Besides the commissions you can face, there's a high psychological cost to the regret you may later incur from any impetuous action.
Sell stocks to erase debts. If you do move money out of the stock market, think first about what you should do with the proceeds. One of the smartest possible uses for the money: getting rid of your credit-card debt. With the interest rates on credit-card balances averaging 10% to 13%, this move gives you what New York City financial planner Gary Schatsky calls "an exceptionally high, guaranteed rate of return." According to the Federal Reserve Board, the median credit-card balance, among families that carry one, is $3,000. The median holding in stocks and mutual funds, on the other hand, was $73,000 in 2007. Let's assume that the value of those investments has since fallen by half, to $37,000. Then selling just 10% of their portfolio of stocks and funds would not only make many families feel better; it could get them out of credit-card debt. (With today's low mortgage rates, credit cards are the liability to attack first.)
Smarten up your cash. Designate the cash part of your portfolio as the "risk-free bucket." That way, you can know that at least one portion of your money will be absolutely safe. Allan Roth, a financial planner with WealthLogic LLC in Colorado Springs, Colo., points out that with inflation approaching zero, five-year certificates of deposits yielding up to 4.5% offer "a very high real return." (You can start your search for them at bankdeals.blogspot.com.) Make sure that the bank or credit union offering the CD is backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. or the National Credit Union Administration; double-check at www.fdic.gov or www.ncua.gov. Many investors don't realize that the FDIC and NCUA will insure an IRA separately for up to $250,000 if it is invested in a deposit account like a CD. Putting a high-yielding CD in a retirement vehicle is tax-smart, to boot.
Thursday, March 5, 2009
The Richest And The Greenest Top 10
- The London Times just released a list of the top 90 richest green investors in the world. Here are the top 10 and what they invested in. Click on the list to read about each investor individually.
Rights issue
A rights issue is a way in which a company can sell new shares in order to raise capital. Shares are offered to existing shareholders in proportion to their current shareholding, respecting their pre-emption rights. The price at which the shares are offered is usually at a discount to the current share price, which gives investors an incentive to buy the new shares — if they do not, the value of their holding is diluted.
A rights issue by a highly geared company intended to strengthen its balance sheet is often a bad sign. Profits are already low (or negative) and future profits are diluted. Unless the underlying business is improved, changing itscapital structure achieves little.
Rights issues to fund expansion can be regarded somewhat more optimistically, although, as with acquisitions, shareholders should be suspicious because management may be empire-building at their expense (the usual agency problem with expansion).
The rights are normally a tradeable security themselves (a type of short dated warrant). This allows shareholders who do not wish to purchase new shares to sell the rights to someone who does. Whoever holds a right can choose to buy a new share (exercise the right) by a certain date at a set price.
Some shareholders may choose to buy all the rights they are offered in the rights issue. This maintains their proportionate ownership in the expanded company, so that an x% stake before the rights issue remains an x% stake after it. Others may choose to sell their rights, diluting their stake and reducing the value of their holding.
If rights are not taken up the company may (and in practice does) sell them on behalf of the rights holder.
It is possible to sell some rights and exercise the remainder. One possibility is selling enough rights to cover the cost of exercising those that are not sold. This allows a shareholder to maintain the value of a holding without further expense (apart from dealing costs).
As with a scrip issue, the price before the rights are issued needs to be adjusted for the rights issue. The calculation is a little more complicated as the new shares are paid for. Before comparison with share prices after the rights issue, prices before the shares went ex-rights need to be multiplied by:
((m ×y) + (n ×x) ) ÷(m ×(x + y))
where x is the number of new shares issued for every y existing shares
m is the closing price on the last day the shares traded cum-rights and
n is the price of the new shares
The same adjustment needs to be made to per share numbers such as EPSif they are to remain comparable, for example, when looking looking at growth trends. However, a large rights issue is often associated with other changes that will distort these numbers or change trends such as paying off debt, expansion, etc.
This calculation makes the assumption that all rights will be exercised. This is usually an acceptable assumption as rights issues are usually priced at a discount to the share price to ensure that they will be exercised.
In the interval between the shares going ex-rights and the rights being exercised, if the share price falls low enough for the rights to have significantoption value, then an adjustment may have to be made for this. This happens very rarely.
Amfirst
current price RM0.84NAV Value RM0.99
div yield >8%
Maybe its time for me to buy amfirst for thier attractive dividend yield. Plus, theres no need to monitor much since always got coverage and news from ahbah in investlah.
Index signals China’s economy still steady
Sturdy domestic demand will see it through global downturn
MOST economic indicators are backward-looking or at best coincident in nature.
Why? Some are due to their inherent characteristics. For example, employment numbers are backward-looking because employees normally lose their jobs only after economic activity has slowed down for some time.
Conversely, employers normally do not start hiring until they are sure that recovery has come and there will be a sustained increase in demand for their products or services.
Most economic indicators are not forward-looking because of the time lag needed to collect and compile the data.
Therefore, they can only measure past economic performance and cannot tell much of what lies ahead. For example, industrial production data for January would only be released in mid-February at the latest.
Fortunately, there are indicators that are forward-looking and are vital in gauging economic activity in the months ahead.
These indicators become particularly important at a time when the economy is making a turning point.
The purchasing manager index (PMI) is one such indicator. PMI is an extremely useful indicator in gauging economic health because its results are based on surveys that cover every aspects of economic activity.
In addition, PMI is usually released within the first few days of the month, hence it provides the badly-needed, timely information.
China started constructing its own PMI for the manufacturing sector only in 2005. The PMI for the non-manufacturing sector came three years later.
The manufacturing PMI is certainly the more famous of the two PMIs and receives significantly wider coverage.
However, this week, i Capital will focus on the less-noticed non-manufacturing PMI.
Although manufacturing is still the largest sector in China’s economy, it is heavily exposed to conditions outside of China. This explains why China’s industrial production has been plunging along with the plunge in exports.
Now, China is counting on domestic demand to carry it through the greatest global economic crisis in many decades.
Since the services sector and China’s in particular, predominantly serves the domestic economy, it is a good indicator in assessing domestic economic conditions.
The non-manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator on China’s services sector, and hence the country’s domestic economic conditions.
China’s non-manufacturing PMI is modelled primarily after the non-manufacturing PMI of the United States, with some modifications to suit China’s economic conditions.
The index is made up of 10 components: business activity, new orders, new export orders, backlog of orders, inventories, prices paid for intermediate inputs, prices charged, employment, supplier deliveries, and expectation of business activity.
Unlike the US, China’s non-manufacturing index does not have an import component because most of China’s service enterprises do not have any import activity.
However, China’s non-manufacturing PMI has two components that are not found in its US counterpart, i.e. expectation of business activity and prices charged.
China’s non-manufacturing PMI is derived from questionnaires sent to a sample size of 1,191 enterprises. Respondents are asked if they are experiencing higher, lower, or no change in activity in each of the 10 components listed above.
Once the results are tallied, a diffusion index is employed to quantify each of the 10 categories listed.
There is no overall composite index; instead, it uses the business activity index as a measure of the rate and direction of change in the services sector. An index value over 50% indicates growth, while below 50% indicates contraction.
The chart shows China’s non-manufacturing PMI in the past five months. As in the manufacturing PMI, China’s non-manufacturing PMI also fell off the cliff in November 2008.
However, it has risen above the 50% threshold in January 2009, indicating an expanding service sector. More importantly, it signifies that China’s domestic demand is expanding.
The fact that the expansion occurs in the month of the Lunar New Year carries even greater significance because in the short history of China’s non-manufacturing PMI, it has always fallen below 50% in the month of the Lunar New Year.
i Capital believes that this encouraging performance provides further assurance that sturdy domestic demand will see China through the current global economic turmoil.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Uncle L and Holland
I'm on my way to holland with TMI Airlines, anyone here same flight with me? damn..gonna put aside TMI for a while and start focusing on other stocks..seriously i dont think i'll ever buy again atm. My profit for last month easily wiped out with TMI. hmmm..i'm saving my other fund for public bank below RM7. Sure i don't have to worry much with PBBank.
If WB, GS , JR also cannot tahan..who am i to fight mr.market.So i guess i'm the new Uncle L.
Looks like yen getting stronger again..not sure sustinabe or not but hope will be good news to me.
DJ closed 4.5% lower
Dow industrials fall below 7,000; lowest since '97
By TIM PARADIS – 1 hour ago
NEW YORK (AP) — Investors' despair about financial companies and the recession have brought the Dow Jones industrial average to another unwanted milestone: its first drop below 7,000 in more than 11 years.
The market's slide Monday wasn't anywhere near the largest is has seen since last fall, but the tumble below 7,000 was nonetheless painful. The credit crisis and recession have slashed more than half of the average's value since it hit a record high over 14,000 in October 2007. And now many investors fear the market could take a long time to regain the lost 7,000.
"As bad as things are, they can still get worse, and get a lot worse," said Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist for Bell Curve Trading. Strazzullo said he believes there's a significant chance the S&P 500 and the Dow will fall back to their 1995 levels of 500 and 5,000, respectively.
The "game-changer," he said, will be the housing market and whether it can stabilize.
A recovery will also require signs of health among financial companies, but so far in 2009, it is clear that banks and insurance companies' losses are multiplying despite hundreds of billions of dollars in government help. The market fell Monday after insurer American International Group Inc. posted a staggering $61.7 billion in quarterly losses and as the government agreed to inject more money into the company. AIG will get another $30 billion in loans, on top of the $150 billion the government has already invested.
And it's not just U.S. companies that have Wall Street frightened. HSBC PLC, Europe's largest bank by market value, said Monday it needs to raise $17.7 billion. The company reported a 70 percent drop in 2008 earnings and said it would cut 6,100 jobs.
While the root of financial firms' problems lie with the bad bets they made on mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, now the recession is exacerbating their problems as it also forces millions of job cuts.
"The economy definitely has deteriorated since November," said Sean Simko, head of fixed income management at SEI Investments. "It's just the fact that we haven't seen signs of improving or stabilizing, per se, which is adding to the morass of the market."
In late afternoon trading, the Dow fell 298.20, or 3 percent, to 6,764.73. The Dow last closed below the 7,000 level on May 1, 1997.
The Dow's descent has been swift. It's taken only 14 sessions for the average to go from above 8,000 to below 7,000. So far this year, the Dow is down 22.5 percent.
Broader stock indicators also slid. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 34.15, or 4.7 percent, to 700.94, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 50.93, or 3.7 percent, to 1,326.91.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 19.37, or 5 percent, to 369.65.
About 10 stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a heavy 1.57 billion shares.
Bond prices jumped as stocks fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, tumbled to 2.91 percent from 3.02 percent late Friday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, slipped to 0.24 percent from 0.25 percent Friday.
The economic readings have been mostly grim, adding momentum to the market's slide. Even when they show some room for optimism many investors have been quick to write them off as aberrations. On Monday, the governent said personal spending incomes rose more than expected in January and that construction spending fell twice as much as forecast. A trade group said manufacturing contracted in February for the 13th straight month, but at a slower pace than expected.
More, and possibly unnerving, economic data are expected later in the week, including the government's report on unemployment and job losses during February.
"I don't think we find a bottom in the market until we see some sort of increased level of optimism and confidence among consumers and investors," said Jim Baird, chief investment strategist at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
For investors, that will take several months of economic and corporate reports that point to signs of a turnaround in housing and job losses and signs that the economy is at least leveling off. Analysts are looking for indications that businesses and consumers are starting to boost spending after months of cutting back.
But the economic readings, and the news coming out of financial companies, are still so alarming that investors feel no alternative but to sell.
"I don't think we find a bottom in the market until we see some sort of increased level of optimism and confidence among consumers and investors," said Baird.
And even when the market finally reaches a bottom, it faces a long, long recovery.
"We do feel that things can improve but it is going to be years before we get back to levels we saw in the markets a year ago," said David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds.
Last week the Dow and the S&P 500 index fell below their Nov. 20-21 lows, reached at the height of the credit crisis. Many traders had hoped would mark the market's low.
Even big name investors are cautious. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett wrote in his annual letter to investors Saturday he is sure "the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 — and, for that matter, probably well beyond — but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall."
Many market analysts look to Wall Street's performance in past bear periods to try to determine when stocks will hit bottom. In the last 60 years, the S&P 500 index bottomed about five months before a recession ended and nine months before corporate profits reached their low or unemployment hit its peak.
The market could recover before the economy starts picking up steam but investors will need some sense that the worst is over — and that was hard to come by Monday.
=======================
By TIM PARADIS – 1 hour ago
NEW YORK (AP) — Investors' despair about financial companies and the recession have brought the Dow Jones industrial average to another unwanted milestone: its first drop below 7,000 in more than 11 years.
The market's slide Monday wasn't anywhere near the largest is has seen since last fall, but the tumble below 7,000 was nonetheless painful. The credit crisis and recession have slashed more than half of the average's value since it hit a record high over 14,000 in October 2007. And now many investors fear the market could take a long time to regain the lost 7,000.
"As bad as things are, they can still get worse, and get a lot worse," said Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist for Bell Curve Trading. Strazzullo said he believes there's a significant chance the S&P 500 and the Dow will fall back to their 1995 levels of 500 and 5,000, respectively.
The "game-changer," he said, will be the housing market and whether it can stabilize.
A recovery will also require signs of health among financial companies, but so far in 2009, it is clear that banks and insurance companies' losses are multiplying despite hundreds of billions of dollars in government help. The market fell Monday after insurer American International Group Inc. posted a staggering $61.7 billion in quarterly losses and as the government agreed to inject more money into the company. AIG will get another $30 billion in loans, on top of the $150 billion the government has already invested.
And it's not just U.S. companies that have Wall Street frightened. HSBC PLC, Europe's largest bank by market value, said Monday it needs to raise $17.7 billion. The company reported a 70 percent drop in 2008 earnings and said it would cut 6,100 jobs.
While the root of financial firms' problems lie with the bad bets they made on mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, now the recession is exacerbating their problems as it also forces millions of job cuts.
"The economy definitely has deteriorated since November," said Sean Simko, head of fixed income management at SEI Investments. "It's just the fact that we haven't seen signs of improving or stabilizing, per se, which is adding to the morass of the market."
In late afternoon trading, the Dow fell 298.20, or 3 percent, to 6,764.73. The Dow last closed below the 7,000 level on May 1, 1997.
The Dow's descent has been swift. It's taken only 14 sessions for the average to go from above 8,000 to below 7,000. So far this year, the Dow is down 22.5 percent.
Broader stock indicators also slid. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 34.15, or 4.7 percent, to 700.94, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 50.93, or 3.7 percent, to 1,326.91.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 19.37, or 5 percent, to 369.65.
About 10 stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a heavy 1.57 billion shares.
Bond prices jumped as stocks fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, tumbled to 2.91 percent from 3.02 percent late Friday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, slipped to 0.24 percent from 0.25 percent Friday.
The economic readings have been mostly grim, adding momentum to the market's slide. Even when they show some room for optimism many investors have been quick to write them off as aberrations. On Monday, the governent said personal spending incomes rose more than expected in January and that construction spending fell twice as much as forecast. A trade group said manufacturing contracted in February for the 13th straight month, but at a slower pace than expected.
More, and possibly unnerving, economic data are expected later in the week, including the government's report on unemployment and job losses during February.
"I don't think we find a bottom in the market until we see some sort of increased level of optimism and confidence among consumers and investors," said Jim Baird, chief investment strategist at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
For investors, that will take several months of economic and corporate reports that point to signs of a turnaround in housing and job losses and signs that the economy is at least leveling off. Analysts are looking for indications that businesses and consumers are starting to boost spending after months of cutting back.
But the economic readings, and the news coming out of financial companies, are still so alarming that investors feel no alternative but to sell.
"I don't think we find a bottom in the market until we see some sort of increased level of optimism and confidence among consumers and investors," said Baird.
And even when the market finally reaches a bottom, it faces a long, long recovery.
"We do feel that things can improve but it is going to be years before we get back to levels we saw in the markets a year ago," said David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds.
Last week the Dow and the S&P 500 index fell below their Nov. 20-21 lows, reached at the height of the credit crisis. Many traders had hoped would mark the market's low.
Even big name investors are cautious. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett wrote in his annual letter to investors Saturday he is sure "the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 — and, for that matter, probably well beyond — but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall."
Many market analysts look to Wall Street's performance in past bear periods to try to determine when stocks will hit bottom. In the last 60 years, the S&P 500 index bottomed about five months before a recession ended and nine months before corporate profits reached their low or unemployment hit its peak.
The market could recover before the economy starts picking up steam but investors will need some sense that the worst is over — and that was hard to come by Monday.
=======================
Monday, March 2, 2009
Update
update...hit new low.gone case. dont want to focus on this stock anymore. should've focused onmy beloved ytl power... :(
“In the next two weeks the company will be pricing the rights based on a discount to the prevailing 5-day volume weighted average price,” said a dealer from a local brokerage.
Another dealer said investors were also concerned about the potential dilution from the rights offering.
“There are concerns that the rights issue may not be enough to resolve the company’s medium-term funding issue. And the market is still waiting for details on the rights offering, there are worries that the potential dilution could extend to 2010,” the second dealer said. - REUTERS
================================
TMI slides ahead of rights pricing
Published: 2009/03/02
SHARES of mobile telephone company TM International dropped as much as 9.27 per cent today as the company is expected to finalise the pricing of a rights offering in the next two weeks, dealers said.
The wider Bursa Malaysia main index fell 1.76 per cent by 11:51am while TM International was down 8.61 per cent at RM2.76.
TM International announced last week it
But the company has not yet decided on the basis of the rights issue and issue price for the rights shares.
Another dealer said investors were also concerned about the potential dilution from the rights offering.
“There are concerns that the rights issue may not be enough to resolve the company’s medium-term funding issue. And the market is still waiting for details on the rights offering, there are worries that the potential dilution could extend to 2010,” the second dealer said. - REUTERS
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Trading Plan
First lets talk about pelikan..just for a quick review.Pelikan reported a rather disspointing result, not that i'm surprised since 4th quarter always the worst quarter for pelikan, as we can see from chart above. Cash and cash equivalent now stood around RM17.3m due to higher repayment of bank borrowing and payable. There's nothing new to talk about the balance sheet.
current price RM0.97
PE 7.2+
net asset ps 1.58 -7.06%
total liabilities -11.25%
payable -17.69% ( - 53.58m)
short term borrowing +16.49% (+23.31m)
repayment of bank borrowing -87.25m
proposed div 0.02sen
Overall the balance sheet is so so in comparison with other companies. Not sure i should dispose pelikan.Dividend yield also not attractive. However the only good betting on pelikan is its growth potiential due to recent restructing activities. Looks promising to me..imo.Hope the recent slump already factored in the market. Since my exposure in pelikan is very very low (thats why i dare to say i wanna hold pelikan earlier or else sure gone case :( )..so maybe i will keep them under my pillow. But then again money is still money (or maybe dispose them). Recession is getting worse. Hmmm...
Unlike pelikan, my exposure in TMI is quite big for a peanut investor like me ..hmmm.i tot TMI could fall below RM3 last friday. Giving me heachead already.
Parkson had a last hour bullish last friday..up 20 sen from my entry price. Not sure sustainable or not.Last friday was busy with my work, so din have much time to monitor my parkson ..hope i could sell at a nice price. TA wise..looks like forming a new uptrend line ? I'll not talk more about this since my TA knowledge is not so good.
Since my health not so good since last few days ..fever, cough and flu , theres not much research i can do. maybe i'll just focus more on TMI and Affin.
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