YTL Power has got the power

Written by The Edge Financial Daily

Friday, 01 April 2011 12:08

YTL Power International Bhd (March 31, RM2.30 Initiate coverage at RM2.29 with buy call and target price RM2.70: We initiate coverage on YTL Power International (YTLP) with a “buy” call and RM2.70 target price. We like its portfolio of steady concession businesses. While we are positive on Yes, YTL Communications’ new 4G mobile Internet service, we expect it to incur start-up losses. That said, we postulate YTLP cash flows are strong enough to maintain net dividend per share (DPS) at 13.1 sen or a 5.7% net dividend yield. More M&A may beckon. YTLP has interests in power generation in three countries (YTL Power Generation in Malaysia, Power Seraya in Singapore and 35%-owned Jawa Power in Indonesia), power transmission in Australia (33.5%-owned Electranet), water and sewerage services in the UK (Wessex Water), telecommunications in Malaysia (60%-owned YTL Communications) and a nascent oil shale joint venture in Jordan (30%-owned). Its power generation assets are multi-fuels (oil, gas and coal) and it operates under different power purchasing agreement (PPA) models (take or pay, liberalised market, and capacity and energy payment), where the skill sets are rare in any independent power producer (IPP) company. Wessex Water is the best water and sewerage company in the UK. YTL Communications’ YES garnered 100,000 subscribers in just 105 days. We estimate FY11 group core net profit to be 10% lower year-on-year on YTL Communications’ start-up losses. Ex-YTL Communications, we estimate 7% compound annual rowth rate over the next three years on steady earnings growth at Power Seraya and Wessex Water. We believe the 50% lower quarter-on-quarter net DPS in 2QFY11 was due to RM1 billion in debt repaid. Based on our cash flow projections, YTLP can maintain FY10 net DPS of 13.1 sen in current FY11 and the next few years. We initiate coverage with a “buy” call and RM2.70 target price (TP). Our sum-of-parts (SOP) TP is largely discounted cash flow-based. Re-rating catalysts are: (i) resumption of quarterly 3.75 sen net DPS; (ii) lower than expected losses at YTL Communications; and (iii) M&A — recall that YTLP was one of two last bidders for the 300MW to 450MW Bibiyana gas IPP in Bangladesh in October 2010. YTLP is likely not done with M&A just yet. —Maybank IB Research, March 31